Predict and Prevent

Epidemiological prediction to guide disease prevention

We will address the UKHSA and public health priorities through research that uses, builds upon and complements UKHSA surveillance and outbreak investigation activities. The activities include analysis of datasets (UKHSA and external), gathering data using UKHSA surveillance, measuring the social impact of control measures and integrating these in models to develop policy. We will use primary mixed-method research to address carriage of gastrointestinal pathogens and antimicrobial resistance in different groups.



Many of the researchers within this theme also work on the STEIM Study: Sexually transmitted enteric infections in men who have sex with men (MSM). For more information on this study please visit the webpage

Please click here to see the Posters presented by Postdocs and PhD students associated with this Theme at the Microbiology Society Annual Conference 2021.

Theme Leaders:

For more information on the Theme Leads please click here.

Noel McCarthy, Theme Lead

Claire Jenkins, UKHSA Co-Lead


Kate Baker, University of Liverpool Co-Lead

Researchers (PDRA/ Tenure Track Fellows)

For more information on the Researchers please click here.


Dan Hungerford, NIHR Post-doctoral Fellow and Tenure Track Fellow

Dana Sumilo, Post-doctoral research fellow

Nicola Love, Post-doctoral research fellow


PhD Students:

For more information on the PhD students please click here.


'Quantifying the factors contributing to sexual transmission of antimicrobial resistant shigellosis' - Lewis Mason

'STEC surveillance and patient management in the culture-free era' - Ella Rodwell

'Joint analysis of national surveillance and external data and modelling of disease spread' - Ellie Brown